CDC NCHS Data Brief No. 359 (March 2020): VBAC Trends
VBAC rates rising across most of the US. 87% home success rate.
CDC NCHS Data Brief tracking VBAC rates 2016-2018. Rate rose from 12.4% (2016) to 13.3% (2018). Increased in 17 states; declined in 1. All race and Hispanic-origin groups except Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander saw rises. Home birth registries (MANA) report VBAC success around 87% at home.
The CDC tracks vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) rates through Data Brief No. 359, published in March 2020 covering 2016 to 2018. The national VBAC rate rose from 12.4 percent in 2016 to 12.8 percent in 2017 and 13.3 percent in 2018.
The rate increased in 17 states and declined in only 1. All race and Hispanic-origin groups had higher VBAC rates in 2018 than in 2016, with the single exception of non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander women.
VBAC success rates when attempted run around 70 percent overall in the broader literature, with home birth registries (MANA) reporting around 87 percent. The numbers matter because the conventional approach in the US for the last several decades has been "once a cesarean, always a cesarean," which is not what the evidence supports. ACOG updated its guidelines years ago to support VBAC for appropriate candidates, but many hospitals still refuse to offer it, often citing malpractice insurance constraints rather than clinical evidence.
13.3%
2018 US VBAC rate (Data Brief 359)
17 states
Where VBAC rate rose 2016-2018
~70%
Success rate when attempted
~87%
At-home VBAC success (MANA)
Why it matters
A category of birth where the success rate is 70 to 87 percent should not be routinely refused. The hospitals that refuse it are not following the evidence. They are following their insurance carriers.
This is one finding from the research library behind How to Birth a Mother. Everything here traces back to a study, a dataset, or a systematic review.